Yep, you read that right.
Regular readers of this column are undoubtedly checking the byline again, given that the author usually serves as the unapologetic harbinger of doom and gloom. Yet, after attending the AviaDev Africa conference in Zanzibar last month, one cannot but come away with a sense of cautious optimism about the direction that African airlines are heading towards. After decades marked by turbulent economics, protectionism, and a never-ending cycle of “national airline as national toy,” the tide may finally be turning.
In April 2025, Africa’s air traffic grew by an incredible 13.6% year-on-year, according to IATA. Granted, Africa’s share of global air transportation still remains despairingly low, but double-digit growth amid today’s relatively challenging economic uncertainty is nothing to shrug at. Even load factors, always an area where Africa barely scratched 70% in comparison to 80% or higher industry standards elsewhere, are up to 76.3% this year. Airlines are flying fuller planes, expanding into new markets, and for the first time in years, some are even reporting real profits.
Ethiopian Airlines, the poster child of African aviation, continues its unstoppable rise. The news cycle can barely keep up with them – every time you check they are either taking delivery of a new aircraft (Boeing 737 Max and Airbus 350s are the current flavours of choice), opening up a new destination (the last few weeks along have seen Porto, Hyderabad and Sharjah launched with Abu Dhabi due to start in mid-July), or launching a new strategic initiative (a partnership with Etihad Airways of the UAE raised a few surprised eyebrows but has great potential). Their Group Chief Executive, Ato Mesfin Tasew, was recently the recipient of the Ato Girma Wake Lifetime Achievement Award. Mesfin personifies so much of what is right about Ethiopian – a quiet commitment and dedication to excellence, valuing results above publicity. ASKY, their satellite airline franchise in Togo, also seems to have reached the first stage of maturity as their route network will soon encompass every West African country with launch of flights to Nouakchott in Mauritania. This airline grouping offers better connectivity than any African airline has ever been able to offer before, albeit with a change of planes in Addis Ababa or Lome.
South Africa is a microcosm of African aviation’s growing pains and promise. The largest domestic market on the continent has seen competition contract and then organically begin to expand again. While legacy carriers like SAA (version 2) make ambitious plans for more intercontinental growth (flights to India seem high on their wish list judging by comments made by their Chief Commercial Officer in a panel discussion I moderated recently), hitherto regional players like Airlink, fresh off a 25% equity investment from Qatar Airways, are investing in Embraer E2 jets to spread their wings further afield within Africa. Those larger regional jets can open up routes like Johannesburg to Zanzibar and Cape Town to Lagos, with the multiplier effect of their hubs creating more connectivity opportunities for Africans within Africa.
Kenya Airways is another state-owned dinosaur that seems to have recognised its looming extinction and sought to reinvent itself. The airline has recorded its first net profit in recent memory and is now looking to grow its fleet again. A focus on additional 737s, bringing back 777s and phasing out their smaller E190s is a risky strategy, but probably one of the few possible paths to sustainable success for an organisation with so much legacy baggage. Their new route to London Gatwick, and their recent strategic partnership with Qatar Airways (yes, them again!) provides snippets of good news and positive momentum for a continental aviation sector often starved of those.
It isn’t all good news though. Rwandair, despite having begun a process of rationalisation of their operations last year, continues to be hampered by aeropolitical constraints. The denial of access to DRC airspace to Rwandan operators has basically amputated their West and Central African destinations from the rest of the network. The proposed investment by Qatar Airways (do you see a trend emerging here?) continues to be delayed and is quickly approaching “boy who cried wolf” territory. Tanzania, despite heavy investment in a modern fleet for Air Tanzania, has been placed on the European Union Safety Watchlist due to perceived deficiencies in oversight by their regulator. Mozambique has appointed yet another set of restructuring experts in a desperate attempt to salvage something from the shell of LAM, their national carrier. Air Botswana seems to have been in the news recently more for boardroom intrigue and politics than for actual operations. For every efficient, profitable operator, there’s still a state-owned airline soaking up public funds or a regional regulator clinging to outdated rules.
Yet, resilience, innovation, and slow but real progress are impossible to ignore. For the first time in decades, the continent’s airlines are flying towards a future where sustainable growth, smart partnerships, and real market demand are setting the course. We might just Make African Airlines Great Again!
Sean Mendis has two decades of experience in senior management roles within the aviation sector in Africa. He is
presently based in Malawi, where he offers executive level consulting and intelligence to aviation stakeholders.
This Article was first published in the Issue 034 of VoyagesAfriq Travel Magazine
