African aviation has never suffered from a shortage of ambition.
Some may even call it hubris.
Every country wants a national airline, and every national airline must fly to London, New York, Dubai and more recently Guangzhou. It doesn’t matter if economics or common sensedictate this isn’t possible. After all Dubai and Singapore did it. Or at the very least, Ethiopia did.
Every month brings a fresh wave of announcements. New airlines are launched amid much fanfare but no actual aircraft. Huge orders are signed with the financing details left to someone else to figure out. Long-haul routes are unveiled, notwithstanding safety blacklists and technical shortcomings. Governments promise new national carriers. Airports announce expansion plans. Media trumpets the next great thing.
Yet for all the attention given to action, African aviation rarely spends enough time discussing the value of restraint.
Sometimes the best decision is not to launch the route.
Sometimes the best decision is not to order the shiny new aircraft.
Sometimes the best decision is not to sign the memorandum of understanding.
And sometimes the most effective strategy is to focus on better executing what already exists rather than chasing what might be possible.
The industry’s tendency to reward announcements rather than outcomes has created a culture where activity is often mistaken for progress.
Uganda Airlines personifies this roller coaster ride perfectly. In the first half of 2026 alone, it has been through a grounding of its entire longhaul fleet (boo), a wetlease of a new medium-haul narrowbody (yay), the firing of its CEO (boo), the hiring of a new CEO (yay), the return (yay) and re-grounding (boo) of its brand new Airbus 330neos, and finally the signing of an agreement to buy 10 aircraft from Boeing (the jury is out on whether this is a yay or a boo). If a Korean soap opera had so many plot twists, its viewers would say it was unrealistic. Yet,here we are normalising dysfunction and even praising it in some quarters.
Air Zimbabwe, reduced to a grand total of zero operational aircraft of its own due to various ills plaguing the airline and the country, has announced non-stop service between Harare and London with barely two weeks notice. Not Johannesburg, not Nairobi, not even Masvingo or Kariba in their own country. London. Ten and a half hours in a wet-leased Spanish-registered Airbus burning 6 tons of jet fuel every hour. It may have been wiser to round up the currency notes and set fire to them. At least that way, the average Zimbabwean taxpayer could stay warm in the harsh southern winter.
All over the continent, we have examples of routes that leave experts scratching their heads when trying to evaluate them using logic. Air Peace from Lagos to Antigua on the last Saturday of every month. TAAG from Luanda to Guangzhou only on Tuesdays. Air Tanzania to Moscow. Air Cote D’Ivoire to Johannesburg via Lagos on an Airbus 330. When viewed from a commercial standpoint, these routes make no sense. But so many African airlines are living the Instagram influencer lifestyle – image is more important than reality. After all, someone else is usually footing the bill.
Infrastructure projects are another area where countries fail to learn from the carcasses of white elephant projects littering the continent and seek to outdo each other with the latest temples of pointless opulence. The newly announced Mbarara Airport in Uganda has been announced with plans to become the world’s 11th largest in the next decade. It will feature two of the longest runways in Africa at 5.5 kilometers each (about a kilometer longer than any other major airport on the continent) and even a special reserved “VIP runway” which mere mortals on scheduled flights shall not be permitted to soil. Never mind that this would require approximately 4000% growth from air traffic levels in the entire country today. The official press release says it will achieve this by targeting flights seeking to refuel while flying between Brazil and China. This isn’t ambition, it is delusion.
This is not an argument against ambition.
Africa needs ambitious airlines.
Africa needs network expansion.
Africa needs investment in infrastructure.
What it does not need is ambition divorced from reality.
The airlines that have achieved sustainable success on the continent have generally followed a different path. Rather than attempting to transform themselves overnight, they have grown methodically. They have focused on strengthening domestic and regional networks, improving operational performance and ensuring that growth is supported by market demand.
In many cases, the decision not to pursue an opportunity has been just as important as the opportunities that were pursued. Progress in aviation is often measured in years rather than months.
For years, the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM) has been criticised for moving too slowly. Critics point to the countless declarations, pilot programs and summit speeches that have promised a more connected continent. Yet perhaps this is precisely where patience matters. Opening African skies requires governments to surrender protectionist instincts and suspicions that have persisted for decades. It is not glamorous work, but incremental progress by Adefunke Adeyemi and her team at the African Civil Aviation Commission (AFCAC) towards genuine liberalisation may ultimately prove more valuable than another grand declaration.
Likewise, Afreximbank’s efforts to support the creation of African aircraft leasing capability may lack the glamour of a ribbon-cutting ceremony or a presidential aircraft unveiling. Building a viable indigenous leasing platform requires patient capital, technical expertise and long-term commitment. It is painstaking work. Yet if successful, it could do more to strengthen African aviation than many of the grand announcements that dominate conference agendas.
Across the continent, the most important developments in aviation today may not be the ones generating the biggest headlines.
A regulator quietly removing a market access restriction.
An airline choosing not to launch an unproven route.
A carrier deferring fleet expansion until demand catches up.
A financial institution laying the groundwork for long-term aviation financing.
These actions rarely make front-page news. Yet they often create more lasting value than the announcements that dominate the front pages.
Sometimes the wisest decision is recognising that doing nothing today creates the opportunity to do something better tomorrow.
Sean Mendis has overe two decades of experience in senior management roles within the aviation sector in Africa. He is presently based in Malawi, where he offers executive level consulting and intelligence to aviation stakeholders.
This article was first published in the August edition of VoyagesAfriq Travel Magazine
